A recent Landmark/RosettaStone Poll has Hillary Clinton trailing Donald Trump by one point in Georgia (42 to 41), a lot has been made of this poll – some are even going so far as to speculate that Donald Trump’s outrageous statements and policy positions may deliver the state to Hillary Clinton. However, I advise caution on the part of political neophytes that may be taking the results of this poll at face value. That same poll indicates that about 20 percent (1 in 5) of Georgians are undecided. As noted by fivethirtyeight’s Nate Silver, polls of the general election taken this early have to be taken with a large serving of salt. So what can we make of a general election poll of Georgia electoral outcomes in May?
First and foremost, if more polls come out indicating that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are neck and neck or nearing even, then we must ask ourselves whether Georgia will be in play in November. I know what some of y’all are already thinking: “Georgia is a red state, a Democrat ain’t winning the state unless Hell freezes over.” The poll was conducted by a very reputable Republican leaning and supporting firm. Furtheremore, in 2000 and 2004 Virginia was also considered a red state. In both of those presidential elections Baby Bush won Virginia by wide margins. 2008 and 2012, however, paint a very different picture – President Obama won that state by similar margins during those presidential election cycles. How did President Obama take a state that has historically supported Republican Presidential candidates and turn it blue? What changed? Was it race and sex? Yes and no. While race and sex played a role in Virginia, it is not the role some of us are hoping Hispanics, Asian Americans, African Americans, and women will eventually play in Georgia. While Virginia did experience demographic shifts that favor Democrats and progressives as a whole, the shifts were modest.
The question really isn’t “what changed,” but “what did President Obama do differently?” Yes, there was modest demographic shifts in Virginia that favor Democratic Presidential candidates. The growth in the Hispanic and female population disproportionately aides Democratic electoral efforts. However, the notion that these voting blocs will remain solidly Democratic, particularly Hispanics, rests on shaky ground. The parties tend towards equilibrium. Assuming that Hispanics, like African Americans, will continue to support Democrats overwhelmingly was not President Obama’s path to success in Virginia. If Hillary Clinton and Democrats in Georgia want to emulate the 2008 or 2012 Virginia results, we must do more than wait for demographics to shift. This year presents a unique opportunity for us to alter the electoral map and deliver Georgia to Democrats for the first time in over two decades.
Georgia has had a tendency to break for Republicans in the last several election cycles, some might say this tendency makes Georgia a safe bet for Donald Trump. But if Virginia’s support of President Obama and the recent poll are to be taken seriously (even with a grain of salt) then we must also take seriously the lessons of President Obama’s electoral success in 2008 and 2012. We cannot simply sit on our laurels and hope that one day the demographics will be in our favor. Now more than ever we must actively push a get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operation outside of the perimeter and reach minorities and female voters. If we never even attempt the GOTV operation beyond the perimeter to sway minorities, other than internal African Americans, we won’t repeat the record numbers that delivered Virginia to President Obama in 2008 and 2012. We mustn’t allow this recent poll to become one of many early general election polls that amount to nothing more than hot air and bluster.
State Senate District 5 Gwinnett 
Democrats Must Work to Turn Georgia Blue
May 25, 2016 — 5th District Blog Posts and CommentsA recent Landmark/RosettaStone Poll has Hillary Clinton trailing Donald Trump by one point in Georgia (42 to 41), a lot has been made of this poll – some are even going so far as to speculate that Donald Trump’s outrageous statements and policy positions may deliver the state to Hillary Clinton. However, I advise caution on the part of political neophytes that may be taking the results of this poll at face value. That same poll indicates that about 20 percent (1 in 5) of Georgians are undecided. As noted by fivethirtyeight’s Nate Silver, polls of the general election taken this early have to be taken with a large serving of salt. So what can we make of a general election poll of Georgia electoral outcomes in May?
First and foremost, if more polls come out indicating that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are neck and neck or nearing even, then we must ask ourselves whether Georgia will be in play in November. I know what some of y’all are already thinking: “Georgia is a red state, a Democrat ain’t winning the state unless Hell freezes over.” The poll was conducted by a very reputable Republican leaning and supporting firm. Furtheremore, in 2000 and 2004 Virginia was also considered a red state. In both of those presidential elections Baby Bush won Virginia by wide margins. 2008 and 2012, however, paint a very different picture – President Obama won that state by similar margins during those presidential election cycles. How did President Obama take a state that has historically supported Republican Presidential candidates and turn it blue? What changed? Was it race and sex? Yes and no. While race and sex played a role in Virginia, it is not the role some of us are hoping Hispanics, Asian Americans, African Americans, and women will eventually play in Georgia. While Virginia did experience demographic shifts that favor Democrats and progressives as a whole, the shifts were modest.
The question really isn’t “what changed,” but “what did President Obama do differently?” Yes, there was modest demographic shifts in Virginia that favor Democratic Presidential candidates. The growth in the Hispanic and female population disproportionately aides Democratic electoral efforts. However, the notion that these voting blocs will remain solidly Democratic, particularly Hispanics, rests on shaky ground. The parties tend towards equilibrium. Assuming that Hispanics, like African Americans, will continue to support Democrats overwhelmingly was not President Obama’s path to success in Virginia. If Hillary Clinton and Democrats in Georgia want to emulate the 2008 or 2012 Virginia results, we must do more than wait for demographics to shift. This year presents a unique opportunity for us to alter the electoral map and deliver Georgia to Democrats for the first time in over two decades.
Georgia has had a tendency to break for Republicans in the last several election cycles, some might say this tendency makes Georgia a safe bet for Donald Trump. But if Virginia’s support of President Obama and the recent poll are to be taken seriously (even with a grain of salt) then we must also take seriously the lessons of President Obama’s electoral success in 2008 and 2012. We cannot simply sit on our laurels and hope that one day the demographics will be in our favor. Now more than ever we must actively push a get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operation outside of the perimeter and reach minorities and female voters. If we never even attempt the GOTV operation beyond the perimeter to sway minorities, other than internal African Americans, we won’t repeat the record numbers that delivered Virginia to President Obama in 2008 and 2012. We mustn’t allow this recent poll to become one of many early general election polls that amount to nothing more than hot air and bluster.
Related